Citadel Expects Fed to Hike Rates This Week as Swap Markets Price 38% Chance
Citadel expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this week, building on swap market pricing that assigns a 38% probability to a quarter-point hike.
Trading desks at Citigroup are betting on a rate pause, contrasting with the broader pricing data that has climbed to this level. The current odds reflect a market assessment that does not significantly diverge from Citadel’s internal expectation.
From the sources (14 posts)
@biancoresearch1/4 The odds of a hike at Wednesday’s meeting are 36%. At no point over the last month or two have these odds reached 50%, but again, this is fairly odd to see such uncertainty so close to a meeting.
@biancoresearch2/4 Since the financial crisis ended in June 2009, the Fed has held 135 FOMC meetings. Only four (3%) of them had enough uncertainty for the probability to be between 33% and 66% in the days leading up to the meeting.
@biancoresearch3/4 Three of them revolved around financial stress, prompting market players to wonder whether it would force the Fed to be more dovish. The fourth was September 2024, but the uncertainty was whether the Fed would cut 25 or 50, not wheth
@biancoresearch4/4 This meeting (the 136th since the financial crisis) has the probability of a hike at 36% as of this writing. But this is about the end of forward guidance. This suggests that such certainty will be the norm going forward.
@macroedgeresTrump asked on Fed this week: Prices are going down rapidly, Warsh will do the right thing #MacroEdge
@polymarketJUST IN: Trump tells Fed “we should have the world’s lowest interest rate”
@polymarket15% chance the Fed cuts rates this year.
@kalshiJUST IN: 69% chance of Fed rate "hike" this year
@businessCitigroup’s traders are betting the Federal Reserve will leave rates unchanged this week, even as the swap markets assign a more than one-in-three chance of a quarter-point hike
@barchartJUST IN 🚨: The odds of a rate hike this week have now climbed to 38% 🤯👀
@businessCitadel expects the Fed to raise interest rates this week — a surprise move strengthening Chairman Kevin Warsh’s credibility in the battle with inflation
@biancoresearchRT @business: Citadel expects the Fed to raise interest rates this week — a surprise move strengthening Chairman Kevin Warsh’s credibility…
@biancoresearchMarket pricing closed today with a 38% probability of a hike, so it is not that far from Citadel.
@stockmktnewzCitadel Securities said today that it expects Kevin Warsh and the 🇺🇸 Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this week - Bloomberg