ECB Holds Deposit Rate at 2.25%, Offers No Forward Guidance on Rate Path as Energy Inflation Persists
The ECB kept its three main interest rates unchanged, maintaining the deposit facility rate at 2.25% alongside the main refinancing rate at 2.40% and the marginal lending rate at 2.65%. The central bank explicitly stated it is not pre-committing to a particular policy rate path and offered no forward guidance on the trajectory of the decision.
Lagarde warned that energy-driven price pressures will likely keep inflation well above the 2% target through the first half of 2027, noting that the full inflationary impact of the recent energy shock has yet to play out. She directed staff to model various oil and gas price scenarios for the September meeting, while traders continue pricing in 48 basis points of additional hikes by year-end.
From the sources (25 posts)
@firstsquawkECB INTEREST RATE DECISION (JUL) ACTUAL: 2.40% VS 2.40% PREVIOUS; EST 2.40%
@financialjuice🔴 ECB INTEREST RATE ACTUAL 2.4% (FORECAST 2.4%, PREVIOUS 2.40%) $MACRO
@financialjuice🔴 ⚠️ BREAKING: ECB DEPOSIT RATE ACTUAL 2.25% (FORECAST 2.25%, PREVIOUS 2.25%) $MACRO
@financialjuiceECB not pre-committing to a particular rate path
@financialjuiceECB: Outlook for energy prices, while highly volatile, currently stands close to baseline of june Eurosystem staff projections and well above levels recorded prior to conflict in Middle East.
@financialjuiceECB: Uncertainty remains high and the full inflationary impact of the energy shock has yet to play out
@wallstengineECB: FULL INFLATION IMPACT OF ENERGY SHOCK HAS YET TO PLAY OUT
@financialjuiceECB: To decide based on the inflation outlook and surrounding risks
@financialjuiceECB: Full energy shock inflationary impact yet to play out
@firstsquawkECB SAYS ECB TODAY DECIDED TO KEEP THREE INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED || SAYS OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY PRICES, WHILE HIGHLY VOLATILE, CURRENTLY STANDS CLOSE TO BASELINE OF JUNE EUROSYSTEM STAFF PROJECTIONS AND WELL ABOVE LEVELS RECORDED PRIOR TO CONF
@firstsquawkECB SAYS UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AND FULL INFLATIONARY IMPACT OF ENERGY SHOCK HAS YET TO PLAY OUT || SAYS WITH TODAY’S DECISION, ECB REMAINS WELL POSITIONED TO NAVIGATE UNCERTAINTY CAUSED BY CONFLICT
@firstsquawkECB SAYS ECB IS NOT PRE-COMMITTING TO A PARTICULAR RATE PATH || SAYS INTEREST RATES INTEREST RATES ON DEPOSIT FACILITY, MAIN REFINANCING OPERATIONS AND MARGINAL LENDING FACILITY WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED AT 2.25%, 2.40% AND 2.65% RESPECTIVELY
@financialjuiceTraders keep ECB wagers steady, seeing 48bps of hikes by year-end
@zerohedgeECB LEAVES DEPOSIT FACILITY RATE AT 2.25%; EST. 2.25% ECB NOT PRE-COMMITTING TO A PARTICULAR RATE PATH
@ftECB holds interest rates at 2.25%
@reuters🏦 The ECB meets today and it's not expected to raise rates — but a 5-6% spike in natural gas prices in a single day might force their hand. Hear why on the Reuters Morning Bid podcast
@cointelegraph🇪🇺 JUST IN: The ECB holds interest rates steady, keeping its deposit rate at 2.25%.
@zerohedgeECB Keeps Rates Unchanged (As Expected), Warns 'Full Energy Inflationary Shock Yet To Come'
@financialjuiceECB's President Lagarde: Manufacturing has held up
@financialjuiceECB's President Lagarde: Higher defense spending is supporting manufacturing
@financialjuiceECB's President Lagarde: Firms, households expect labour market to remain weaker than before conflict.
@financialjuiceECB's President Lagarde: Growth to remain modest in the near term
@financialjuiceECB's President Lagarde: Drivers of medium-term growth remain intact
@firstsquawkECB'S LAGARDE: ACTIVITY IN SERVICES PARTLY RECOVERED
@financialjuiceECB's President Lagarde: Urgent action is needed to strengthen the Euro-area economy