Fed’s Williams Expects U.S. Inflation to Drop to 3.25% by Year-End, Forecasting Rate Cuts
New York Fed President Williams stated that U.S. inflation remains near 4% but has peaked, forecasting a decline to 3.25% by the end of the year. He noted that recent consumer price data matched his expectations, confirming that the current monetary policy stance is positioned to restore the central bank’s 2% price target within the next two years.
Williams projected real gross domestic product growth of 2% to 2.25% annually through 2028, while the unemployment rate is expected to gradually fall to 4%. He indicated that interest rates will step down once inflation returns to the 2% goal, while flagging shelter price trends and Middle East supply disruptions as ongoing variables that could pressure growth and pricing stability.
From the sources (25 posts)
@firstsquawkFED'S WILLIAMS: WHEN INFLATION COMES BACK TO 2%, I WOULD EXPECT INTEREST RATES TO MOVE DOWN SOMEWHAT TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS
@financialjuiceFed's Williams: ‘Absolutely not' any consideration to changing 2% target
@firstsquawkWILLIAMS: CPI PRINT WAS CONSISTENT WITH WHAT I AM HOPING TO SEE OVER COMING MONTHS
@cnbcNew York Fed President Williams says inflation has peaked, rates 'well positioned'
@stockmktnewz🇺🇸 FED'S WILLIAMS JUST SAID: - ENCOURAGING REASONS TO EXPECT THAT INFLATION HAS PEAKED AND SHOULD EDGE DOWN IN COMING QUARTERS
@firstsquawkFED'S WILLIAMS: EXPECT OVERALL INFLATION TO DECLINE TO AROUND 3.25% BY YEAR-END, CONTINUE TOWARD OUR 2% GOAL IN 2027 AND LAND ON TARGET IN 2028 || MEDIUM- AND LONGER-TERM INFLATION EXPECTATIONS REMAIN WELL ANCHORED
@financialjuiceFed's Williams: Expect overall inflation to decline to around 3.25% by year-end, continue toward our 2% goal in 2027 and land on target in 2028.
@financialjuiceFed's Williams: Inflation is unquestionably too high at about 4%.
@financialjuiceFed's Williams: With inflation running high, it is imperative that we restore it to 2% goal on a sustained basis.
@financialjuiceFed's Williams: Encouraging reasons to expect that inflation has peaked and should edge down in coming quarters.
@firstsquawkFED'S WILLIAMS: WITH INFLATION RUNNING HIGH, IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT WE RESTORE IT TO 2% GOAL ON A SUSTAINED BASIS || CURRENT STANCE OF MONETARY POLICY IS WELL POSITIONED TO DO THAT
@firstsquawkFED'S WILLIAMS: INFLATION IS UNQUESTIONABLY TOO HIGH AT ABOUT 4% || ENCOURAGING REASONS TO EXPECT THAT INFLATION HAS PEAKED AND SHOULD EDGE DOWN IN COMING QUARTERS
@financialjuiceFed's Williams: Expect real GDP growth to be around 2%-2.25% this year and over the next two years.
@financialjuiceFed's Williams: Expect unemployment rate to edge down gradually to 4% in 2028
@firstsquawkFED'S WILLIAMS: EXPECT REAL GDP GROWTH TO BE AROUND 2%-2.25% THIS YEAR AND OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS || EXPECT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE TO EDGE DOWN GRADUALLY TO 4% IN 2028
@firstsquawkFED'S WILLIAMS: FULL EFFECTS OF THE AI INVESTMENT SURGE ON GROWTH, EMPLOYMENT, AND INFLATION ARE HARD TO PREDICT || SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS STEMMING FROM THE MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT CONTINUE TO BE A SOURCE OF RISK TO THE OUTLOOKS FOR BOTH GROWTH AN
@financialjuiceFed's Williams: Supply disruptions stemming from the Middle East conflict continue to be a source of risk to the outlooks for both growth and inflation
@firstsquawkFED'S WILLIAMS: GROWTH IN THE ECONOMY IS SOLID AND ON TREND, AND THE LABOR MARKET IS LIKEWISE SOLID AND STABLE || WHILE EFFECTS OF MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT POSE SIGNIFICANT RISKS, US ECONOMY SO FAR HAS ABSORBED THESE EVENTS FAIRLY WELL
@financialjuiceFed's Williams: While the effects of the Middle East conflict pose significant risks, the US economy so far has absorbed these events fairly well
@zerohedge*WILLIAMS: SHELTER INFLATION SHOULD REMAIN ON DOWNWARD PATH *WILLIAMS: EXPECT OVERALL INFLATION TO FALL TO 3.25% BY YEAR END
@financialjuiceFed's Williams: CPI print was consistent with what I am hoping to see over the coming months
@financialjuiceFed's Williams: Warsh understands how important it is to deliver price stability and maximum employment.
@financialjuiceFed's Williams: Warsh profoundly believes in the Fed's mission
@firstsquawkFED'S WILLIAMS: HE UNDERSTANDS HOW IMPORTANT IT IS TO DELIVER PRICE STABILITY AND MAXIMUM EMPLOYMENT
@financialjuiceFed's Williams: Warsh is bringing fresh thinking that is very welcome.