Fed Holds Rates at 3.5%-3.75%, Drops Forward Guidance and Lifts 2026 Rate Forecast to 3.8%
The Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% in a unanimous vote at Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as chair, while sharply shortening the policy statement and removing language that had signaled a bias toward future cuts. Warsh said the Fed had dropped forward guidance, and updated projections turned more hawkish, with the median fed-funds forecast rising to 3.8% for end-2026 from 3.4% in March and nine of 18 policymakers penciling in at least one hike.
Warsh said the central bank would deliver price stability and launched five task forces on communications, the balance sheet, data sources, productivity and jobs, and inflation frameworks, a review that could reshape how the Fed makes decisions and communicates with the public. He said the 2% inflation target was not under review and hoped the work would be completed by end-2026; new forecasts raised 2026 PCE inflation to 3.6% from 2.7%, lowered GDP growth to 2.2% from 2.4% and showed inflation returning to target only in 2028, helping push Treasury yields higher as traders priced in higher borrowing costs.
From the sources (25 posts)
@firstsquawkEconomists Bet On Higher Rates As Kevin Warsh Takes Reins At The Fed – FT
@cnbcTreasury yields fall ahead of Kevin Warsh's first Fed meeting
@businessNew Federal Reserve chief Kevin Warsh has promised an overhaul of communications
@businessThe Fed under Kevin Warsh looks likely to communicate less with investors and that may mean more market volatility.
@coinmarketcapTHIS WEEK: 🇺🇸 Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces his debut press conference Wednesday with inflation stuck above the 2% target and markets watching for any signal on whether rate hikes are coming.
@cointelegraph🚨 UPDATE: According to Wintermute, markets are now focused on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting, with investors watching whether he prioritizes 4.2% headline inflation or softer core inflation and falling oil prices.
@cointelegraph⚡️ UPDATE: Markets are pricing in a 99% chance the Fed holds rates steady tomorrow, with investors focused on Kevin Warsh’s first comments as Fed Chair.
@milkroadaiRT @MilkRoadMacro: At 2pm EST today, Kevin Warsh will announce his first interest rate decision. There's currently a 99.6% chance that he…
@deitaone🚨 *FED LEAVES RATE UNCHANGED
@bulltheoryioBREAKING: The Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged. This is the first Fed meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh.
@cryptorover💥 BREAKING: The Fed held rates unchanged. Now all eyes are on Kevin Warsh’s first ever FOMC speech as Fed Chair.
@tradfi*FED LEAVES INTEREST RATE UNCHANGED, WARSH TO GIVE FIRST FOMC SPEECH IN 30 MINUTES
@firstsquawkU.S. (JUN) FED INTEREST RATE DECISION ACTUAL: 3.75% VS 3.75% PREVIOUS; EST 3.75%
@maxcrypto🚨 BREAKING 🚨 🇺🇸 Fed keeps rates unchanged as expected.
@zerohedge*FED HOLDS BENCHMARK RATE IN 3.5%-3.75% RANGE IN UNANIMOUS VOTE *FED REMOVES STATEMENT REFERENCE TO ADDITIONAL RATE ADJUSTMENTS
@tradfi*FED LOWERS MEDIAN 2026 GDP PROJECTION TO 2.2% FROM 2.4%
@kobeissiletterBREAKING: The Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged in its first policy decision with Kevin Warsh as Fed Chairman.
@wallstengineFED CHAIR WARSH HOLDS RATES UNCHANGED, AS EXPECTED
@zerohedge*FED: NINE OF 18 FOMC PARTICIPANTS PENCIL IN 2026 RATE HIKE
@financialjuice🔴 ⚠️ BREAKING: US INTEREST RATE DECISION ACTUAL 3.75% (FORECAST 3.75%, PREVIOUS 3.75%) $MACRO
@tradfi*FED: NINE OF 18 FOMC PARTICIPANTS PENCIL IN 2026 RATE HIKE
@deitaone*FED LOWERS MEDIAN 2026 GDP PROJECTION TO 2.2% FROM 2.4%
@gurgavin*FED LEAVES BENCHMARK RATE AT 3.75%; EST. 3.75%
@bitcoinmagazineBREAKING: 🇺🇸 Federal Reserve officially leaves interest rates unchanged.
@hedgeyeBREAKING: The Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged