Shell CEO Estimates 1.2 Billion-Barrel Oil Shortfall From Hormuz, Sees at Least a Year to Rebalance
Shell's chief executive said disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz have left the oil market short by about 1.2 billion barrels and that restoring crude market equilibrium will take at least a year.
The estimate adds to warnings that the recovery in Middle East oil flows will be prolonged. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its June outlook that oil shipments through Hormuz should resume in the third quarter of 2026, but traffic won't return to pre-war levels until early 2027; disruptions forced regional producers to cut output by more than 11 million barrels a day in May from pre-war levels, and some output may stay affected beyond the agency's forecast horizon through the end of 2027.
From the sources (25 posts)
@cnbcStrait of Hormuz traffic won't return to normal until end of the year, traders say
@firstsquawkOIL PRICES REMAINED FIRM AFTER ISRAEL AND IRAN PAUSED HOSTILITIES, BUT CONCERNS PERSIST AS DISRUPTIONS IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ CONTINUE TO RESTRICT THE FLOW OF CRUDE OIL, FUELS, AND NATURAL GAS, SUPPORTING ELEVATED PRICES.
@firstsquawkMARKETS REMAIN FOCUSED ON GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS, WITH ANALYSTS WARNING THAT EVEN IF A BROADER PEACE DEAL IS REACHED, RESTORING NORMAL ENERGY EXPORTS COULD TAKE MONTHS DUE TO MINE CLEARANCE, INFRASTRUCTURE REPAIRS, AND THE RESTART OF DAM
@firstsquawkEIA REPORTS THAT DISRUPTIONS IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ LED MIDDLE EAST PRODUCERS TO REDUCE OUTPUT BY MORE THAN 11 MILLION BARRELS PER DAY IN MAY COMPARED TO LEVELS BEFORE THE WAR.
@deitaoneEIA: HORMUZ OIL TO RESUME Q3 2026 — FULL RECOVERY ONLY IN 2027 EIA now expects Strait of Hormuz oil shipments to resume in Q3 2026, but pre-war traffic levels won’t return until early 2027. Kalshi traders disagree: 52% chance of normal tr
@financialjuiceEIA does not expect Strait of Hormuz traffic to ramp up to pre-Iran war level until early 2027.
@financialjuiceEIA now assumes oil shipments through Strait of Hormuz resume in Q3 2026
@financialjuiceEIA projects 2026 U.S. oil production at 13.72 million bpd, up from prior 13.65 million; forecasts 2027 output at 14.15 million bpd versus 14.1 million previously
@financialjuiceEIA forecasts 2026 US natgas output of 111 bcf/day, up from prior estimate 110.6 bcf/day; projects 2027 demand at 113.6 bcf/day, down from 115 bcf/day
@financialjuiceEIA forecasts 2026 U.S. oil demand at 20.7 mln bpd, unchanged from previous; expects 2027 demand at 20.7 mln bpd
@financialjuiceEIA expects 2026 U.S. natural gas demand at 92.1 bcf/day, up from previous 91.2 bcf/d; projects 2027 demand at 95 bcf/d versus prior 94.4 bcf/d
@financialjuiceEIA projects 2026 world oil demand at 102.9 mln bpd, down from prior 104.2 mln bpd; 2027 demand seen at 105.3 mln bpd versus 105.6 mln bpd prior
@financialjuiceEIA projects 2026 world oil output at 99 million bpd, down from prior forecast of 101.6 million bpd; expects 2027 output of 109.3 million bpd versus 109.5 million bpd previously
@financialjuiceEIA sees 2026 WTI price average at $88.32/bbl, up from prior $85.68; 2027 forecast steady at $74.39/bbl
@financialjuiceEIA projects 2026 Brent price average at $95.39/bbl, up from prior $94.85/bbl; 2027 forecast steady at $79.39/bbl
@financialjuiceU.S. oil output to average 13.83 million bpd in June vs 13.71 million in May: EIA
@financialjuiceU.S. natural gas output to average 122.3 bcf/day in June vs 122.1 bcf/day in May: EIA
@financialjuiceEIA June 2026 STEO Report
@firstsquawkEIA PROJECTS 2026 WTI AVERAGE PRICE AT $88.32/BBL, UP FROM $85.68/BBL; 2027 PRICE FORECAST REMAINS AT $74.39/BBL. EIA ALSO ESTIMATES 2026 BRENT AVERAGE AT $95.39/BBL, RISING FROM $94.85/BBL; 2027 FORECAST STAYS AT $79.39/BBL. U.S. OIL PRODU
@financialjuiceEIA expects some Middle East output to remain disrupted beyond STEO forecast that runs through end of 2027
@firstsquawkEIA NOW EXPECTS OIL SHIPMENTS THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ TO RESUME IN Q3 2026.
@firstsquawkUS EIA FORECASTS STRAIT OF HORMUZ TRAFFIC WILL NOT RETURN TO PRE-IRAN WAR LEVELS UNTIL EARLY 2027.
@firstsquawkEIA PREDICTS THAT SOME OIL PRODUCTION IN THE MIDDLE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BEYOND THE STEO PROJECTIONS THAT GO UNTIL THE END OF 2027.
@financialjuiceEIA: Strait of Hormuz disruptions forced Middle East producers to cut output by over 11 mln BPD in May versus pre-war level
@financialjuiceEIA now expects global oil demand to decline in 2026, reversing earlier forecast of marginal increase.