ASE Raises 2026 Capex to $8.5 Billion as TSMC CoWoS Shortfall Sends Overflow Orders

aiai-infrastructureai-compute-chips 2 posts · 1 accounts

TSMC’s inability to meet CoWoS demand has sent overflow orders to packaging specialists ASE and Powertech, according to a media report. ASE has raised its 2026 capex to $8.5 billion from $7 billion to meet demand for Leading Edge Advanced Packaging, or LEAP, tied to AI servers, high-speed networking and automotive, with projected revenue rising to $3.5 billion from $3.2 billion.

The report said TSMC is expanding CoWoS advanced packaging capacity fast enough that the supply-demand gap could narrow to 10% by the end of 2026 from 20% now. TSMC and suppliers are working to deploy new capacity, with further improvement expected in 2027.

From the sources (2 posts)

@dnystedt

TSMC is expanding CoWoS advanced packaging capacity so fast it could narrow the supply-demand gap to just 10% by end-2026, from 20% now, media report, noting TSMC and suppliers are working hard to deploy new capacity and further improvement

@dnystedt

TSMC’s inability to meet CoWoS demand has sent overflow orders to packaging specialists ASE, Powertech, media report, adding ASE raised its 2026 capex to US$8.5 billion from $7 billion to meet demand for Leading Edge Advanced Packaging (LEA

Market impact

28 small

TSM NVDA SOXX

Why it matters: ASE absorbing TSMC's CoWoS overflow and the supply-demand gap narrowing to 10% signals the AI advanced-packaging bottleneck is loosening, a modest positive for AI-server throughput but confined to niche OSAT/packaging pure-plays with only diffuse read-through to TSMC/Nvidia.

At publish time: Headline names a specific $8.5B (from $7B) capex hike and a CoWoS gap narrowing to 10% from 20%, a concrete supply-chain datapoint on the AI packaging bottleneck.

model confidence: medium

What happened next

1–2 weeks later

mixed moved up

AI packaging demand confirmed and intensified: ASE capex/revenue doubling, TSMC hiked prices 5-10%, Nvidia's $85B oversubscribed bond. But predicted bottleneck-loosening reversed; supply stayed tight.

based on follow-up coverage

Follow-up coverage

Jun 19

Nvidia Raises $25 Billion in First Debt Offering Since 2021 as Orders Top $85 Billion

matched on: orders, raises
Jun 22

Nvidia Raises $25 Billion in Debt, Draws $85 Billion of Orders

matched on: orders, raises
Jun 24

TSMC Raises Foundry Prices by 5% to 10%

matched on: raises, tsmc
Jun 25

ASE Raises $8.5 Billion Capex Forecast as AI Chip Packaging Demand Surges

matched on: capex, raises
Jul 1

Google Humufish TPU to Use Intel EMIB Packaging Instead of TSMC CoWoS

matched on: cowos, tsmc

Samsung Foundry in Talks With Nvidia on LP40, Rebuts Shift-to-TSMC Claims TSMC Posts Record May Revenue of NT$417 Billion, Up 30% on AI Demand