Economists Forecast More Fed Rate Hikes Than Cuts for First Time Since 2023
A poll of economists showed expectations for US inflation and job growth have risen, shifting forecasts for Federal Reserve interest rates. For the first time since 2023, more forecasters now expect the central bank to raise rates than cut them, while 78 of 102 economists project the Fed will hold the benchmark federal funds rate steady at 3.50% to 3.75% through 2026.
Economists increased their estimates for a key inflation gauge and boosted job creation forecasts, pushing back expectations for monetary easing until well into 2027. The shift marks a decisive change in the macroeconomic outlook from the early June survey, which had shown 72 of the same 102 economists expecting the rates to remain unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% for the year.
From the sources (4 posts)
@firstsquawkOUTLOOK FOR FED INTEREST RATES SHIFTS IN A HAWKISH DIRECTION – FT
@businessEconomists raised their forecasts for a key gauge of US inflation this year and boosted estimates for job creation, scrapping the chance of a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut until well into 2027
@financialjuicePoll: Fed to hold fed funds rate steady at 3.50% to 3.75% in 2026 - 78 of 102 economists (vs 72 of 102 economists in early June poll)
@financialjuicePoll: More economists are forecasting Fed rate hikes than cuts for the first time since 2023