Deutsche Bank Revises Fed Forecast to Two Hikes This Year; Polymarket Prices 53% Odds of a Hike by October
After the latest Federal Reserve meeting, Deutsche Bank economist Matthew Luzzetti revised his Fed forecast to 50 basis points of rate hikes later this year, with a base case of increases in September and December on expectations the central bank will act against sticky inflation. Prediction market Polymarket put the chance of a hike by the October meeting at 53%.
The revision builds on the repricing that followed Kevin Warsh’s first policy meeting as Fed chair on June 17. The Fed kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% then, but raised its median end-2026 rate projection to 3.8% from 3.4%; nine of 18 officials penciled in at least one increase by the end of 2026, while the central bank lifted its 2026 inflation forecast to 3.6% and cut GDP growth to 2.2%.
From the sources (25 posts)
@milkroadaiRT @MilkRoadMacro: At 2pm EST today, Kevin Warsh will announce his first interest rate decision. There's currently a 99.6% chance that he…
@deitaone🚨 *FED LEAVES RATE UNCHANGED
@bulltheoryioBREAKING: The Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged. This is the first Fed meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh.
@cryptorover💥 BREAKING: The Fed held rates unchanged. Now all eyes are on Kevin Warsh’s first ever FOMC speech as Fed Chair.
@tradfi*FED LEAVES INTEREST RATE UNCHANGED, WARSH TO GIVE FIRST FOMC SPEECH IN 30 MINUTES
@firstsquawkU.S. (JUN) FED INTEREST RATE DECISION ACTUAL: 3.75% VS 3.75% PREVIOUS; EST 3.75%
@maxcrypto🚨 BREAKING 🚨 🇺🇸 Fed keeps rates unchanged as expected.
@zerohedge*FED HOLDS BENCHMARK RATE IN 3.5%-3.75% RANGE IN UNANIMOUS VOTE *FED REMOVES STATEMENT REFERENCE TO ADDITIONAL RATE ADJUSTMENTS
@tradfi*FED LOWERS MEDIAN 2026 GDP PROJECTION TO 2.2% FROM 2.4%
@kobeissiletterBREAKING: The Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged in its first policy decision with Kevin Warsh as Fed Chairman.
@wallstengineFED CHAIR WARSH HOLDS RATES UNCHANGED, AS EXPECTED
@zerohedge*FED: NINE OF 18 FOMC PARTICIPANTS PENCIL IN 2026 RATE HIKE
@financialjuice🔴 ⚠️ BREAKING: US INTEREST RATE DECISION ACTUAL 3.75% (FORECAST 3.75%, PREVIOUS 3.75%) $MACRO
@tradfi*FED: NINE OF 18 FOMC PARTICIPANTS PENCIL IN 2026 RATE HIKE
@deitaone*FED LOWERS MEDIAN 2026 GDP PROJECTION TO 2.2% FROM 2.4%
@gurgavin*FED LEAVES BENCHMARK RATE AT 3.75%; EST. 3.75%
@bitcoinmagazineBREAKING: 🇺🇸 Federal Reserve officially leaves interest rates unchanged.
@hedgeyeBREAKING: The Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged
@deitaone*FED REMOVES STATEMENT REFERENCE TO ADDITIONAL RATE ADJUSTMENTS
@thestalwartBREAKING: UNINAMOUS HOLD. HALF THE COMMITTEE ANTICIPATES HIKES. *FED HOLDS BENCHMARK RATE IN 3.5%-3.75% RANGE IN UNANIMOUS VOTE *FED REMOVES STATEMENT REFERENCE TO ADDITIONAL RATE ADJUSTMENTS *FED: NINE OF 18 FOMC PARTICIPANTS PENCIL IN
@financialjuiceFed policymakers see 2.2% gdp growth in 2026 versus 2.4% in March, see longer-run growth at 2.0% vs 2.0% in March.
@stockmktnewzAs expected ... Kevin Warsh and the 🇺🇸 Fed just left rates UNCHANGED at between 3.50%-3.75%
@amitisinvestingIn Kevin Warsh's first meeting as the Fed Chair, the committee decides to leave rates unchanged on a unanimous 12-0 vote.
@deitaoneFED LIFTS RATE PATH, INFLATION OUTLOOK RISES Federal Reserve projections show the median fed funds rate rising to 3.8% in 2026 (from 3.4%), 3.6% in 2027, and 3.4% in 2028, with the long-run rate unchanged at 3.1%. Officials now expect high
@gurgavin*FED: NINE OF 18 FOMC PARTICIPANTS PENCIL IN 2026 RATE HIKE RATE HIKE’S COMING SOON