Traders Price 40.6% Odds of July 29 Fed Hike as Dollar Index Hits One-Year High
CME FedWatch showed traders were assigning a 40.6% probability to a Federal Reserve rate increase at the July 29 meeting, while the US Dollar Index climbed to its highest level in over a year, according to Barchart data. The Treasury market also saw a record surge in futures trading, underscoring bets that the Fed’s next move will be a hike.
The repricing extends the hawkish shift that followed Kevin Warsh’s first policy meeting as chair, when officials left the benchmark rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% but lifted their median end-2026 fed-funds projection to 3.8% from 3.4%. Nine of 18 policymakers penciled in at least one increase, while forecasts raised 2026 PCE inflation to 3.6% and cut GDP growth to 2.2%, reinforcing expectations that US borrowing costs may stay higher for longer.
From the sources (25 posts)
@cnbcTreasury yields fall ahead of Kevin Warsh's first Fed meeting
@businessNew Federal Reserve chief Kevin Warsh has promised an overhaul of communications
@businessThe Fed under Kevin Warsh looks likely to communicate less with investors and that may mean more market volatility.
@coinmarketcapTHIS WEEK: 🇺🇸 Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces his debut press conference Wednesday with inflation stuck above the 2% target and markets watching for any signal on whether rate hikes are coming.
@cointelegraph🚨 UPDATE: According to Wintermute, markets are now focused on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting, with investors watching whether he prioritizes 4.2% headline inflation or softer core inflation and falling oil prices.
@cointelegraph⚡️ UPDATE: Markets are pricing in a 99% chance the Fed holds rates steady tomorrow, with investors focused on Kevin Warsh’s first comments as Fed Chair.
@milkroadaiRT @MilkRoadMacro: At 2pm EST today, Kevin Warsh will announce his first interest rate decision. There's currently a 99.6% chance that he…
@deitaone🚨 *FED LEAVES RATE UNCHANGED
@bulltheoryioBREAKING: The Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged. This is the first Fed meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh.
@cryptorover💥 BREAKING: The Fed held rates unchanged. Now all eyes are on Kevin Warsh’s first ever FOMC speech as Fed Chair.
@tradfi*FED LEAVES INTEREST RATE UNCHANGED, WARSH TO GIVE FIRST FOMC SPEECH IN 30 MINUTES
@firstsquawkU.S. (JUN) FED INTEREST RATE DECISION ACTUAL: 3.75% VS 3.75% PREVIOUS; EST 3.75%
@maxcrypto🚨 BREAKING 🚨 🇺🇸 Fed keeps rates unchanged as expected.
@zerohedge*FED HOLDS BENCHMARK RATE IN 3.5%-3.75% RANGE IN UNANIMOUS VOTE *FED REMOVES STATEMENT REFERENCE TO ADDITIONAL RATE ADJUSTMENTS
@tradfi*FED LOWERS MEDIAN 2026 GDP PROJECTION TO 2.2% FROM 2.4%
@kobeissiletterBREAKING: The Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged in its first policy decision with Kevin Warsh as Fed Chairman.
@wallstengineFED CHAIR WARSH HOLDS RATES UNCHANGED, AS EXPECTED
@zerohedge*FED: NINE OF 18 FOMC PARTICIPANTS PENCIL IN 2026 RATE HIKE
@financialjuice🔴 ⚠️ BREAKING: US INTEREST RATE DECISION ACTUAL 3.75% (FORECAST 3.75%, PREVIOUS 3.75%) $MACRO
@tradfi*FED: NINE OF 18 FOMC PARTICIPANTS PENCIL IN 2026 RATE HIKE
@deitaone*FED LOWERS MEDIAN 2026 GDP PROJECTION TO 2.2% FROM 2.4%
@gurgavin*FED LEAVES BENCHMARK RATE AT 3.75%; EST. 3.75%
@bitcoinmagazineBREAKING: 🇺🇸 Federal Reserve officially leaves interest rates unchanged.
@hedgeyeBREAKING: The Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged
@deitaone*FED REMOVES STATEMENT REFERENCE TO ADDITIONAL RATE ADJUSTMENTS