Nomura Delays China Rate and RRR Cut Forecast to 2027 After Raising 2026 PPI to 2.5%
Nomura pushed back its forecast for China reserve-ratio and interest-rate cuts to 2027 after raising its 2026 producer-price inflation forecast to 2.5% from 1% and its consumer inflation forecast to 0.9% from 0.6%.
The changes followed May data showing China’s consumer price index rose 1.2% from a year earlier, below a 1.3% forecast, while factory-gate inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in almost four years amid higher energy, commodity and AI-related costs. Firmer upstream price pressures, despite still-subdued consumer inflation, point to a less aggressive easing path.
From the sources (10 posts)
@financialjuiceChina consumer price index rises 1.2% year-on-year, polls had forecast 1.3%
@cnbcChina May wholesale prices hit near 4-year highs on Iran war, AI costs; consumer inflation misses
@businessChina’s consumer inflation unexpectedly stalled in May even as factory prices rose at the fastest pace in almost four years, as higher commodity costs bring closer the end of a record streak of economy-wide deflation
@wsjChina’s factory-gate inflation accelerated in May as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East kept fueling higher energy and commodity costs.
@polymarketNEW: China's producer inflation in May soared to highest level in four years.
@financialjuiceNomura lifts its China 2026 PPI forecast to 2.5% from 1%.
@financialjuiceNomura lifts its China 2026 CPI forecast to 0.9% from 0.6%.
@firstsquawkCHINA 2026 CPI FORECAST LIFTED TO 0.9% FROM 0.6% BY NOMURA
@firstsquawkNOMURA LIFTS ITS CHINA 2026 PPI FORECAST TO 2.5% FROM 1%
@firstsquawkNOMURA PUSHES OUT ITS FORECAST FOR CHINA RRR, RATE CUTS TO 2027