US Rate Futures Fully Price Quarter-Point Fed Hike by Year-End After May Jobs Data
US rate futures fully priced in a quarter-point Federal Reserve rate hike by year-end after job growth topped all forecasts in May, lifting the implied probability of a December increase to 63% from 48% before the data. The repricing also brought forward the timing of a hike to January from March previously, while Treasuries tumbled on the stronger jobs report.
The move came after Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said earlier this week that officials may need to raise rates later this year because monetary policy looks neutral or loose and inflation is taking too long to return to the Fed's 2% target. Futures still indicate the Fed will hold rates steady at its June policy meeting, and BNP Paribas forecasts three hikes starting in December.
From the sources (22 posts)
@financialjuiceFed's Logan: Increasingly concerned that higher interest rates could be necessary later this year. Monetary policy is not restraining the economy. Inflation is taking too long to return to 2%. Economic activity remains strong, and corporat
@businessFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan said officials may need to raise interest rates later this year to bring inflation back to the US central bank’s 2% target
@financialjuiceFed's Logan: The higher price of gas is feeding through to the prices of other goods and services.
@financialjuiceFed's Logan: Need mildly restrictive policy.
@financialjuiceFed's Logan: Current monetary policy looks neutral or loose.
@financialjuice🔴 Traders price in additional Fed tightening after the May jobs data.
@zerohedge*TRADERS PRICE IN ADDITIONAL FED TIGHTENING AFTER MAY JOBS DATA
@deitaoneUS INTEREST RATE FUTURES RAISE ODDS OF DECEMBER RATE HIKE AFTER JOBS DATA TO 63% VS 48% JUST BEFORE
@firstsquawkUS INTEREST RATE FUTURES INCREASED THE LIKELIHOOD OF A DECEMBER RATE HIKE TO 63% FROM 48% FOLLOWING JOBS REPORT.
@financialjuice🔴 US interest rate futures raise odds of a December rate hike after jobs data to 63% vs 48% just before.
@financialjuice🔴 Traders price in Fed rate hike by January vs March previously.
@financialjuice🔴 US rate futures still price in Fed on hold in June policy meeting
@deitaoneUS RATE FUTURES STILL PRICE IN FED ON HOLD IN JUNE POLICY MEETING
@deitaoneSTRONG US JOBS DATA LIFTS FED HIKE ODDS Rate futures now price a 63% chance of a December Fed hike, up from 48% pre-data. Kalshi traders also see a 64% chance of a Fed hike before July 2027, with probabilities trending higher. Markets now
@deitaoneTRADERS FULLY PRICE IN QUARTER-POINT FED RATE HIKE BY YEAR-END
@zerohedge*TRADERS FULLY PRICE IN QUARTER-POINT FED RATE HIKE BY YEAR-END
@financialjuiceEffective Fed Funds rate 3.62% June 4th vs 3.62% June 3rd
@businessTreasuries tumbled after US job growth topped all forecasts in May, driving traders to fully price in a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike by the end of this year
@stockmktnewzMarkets are now starting to think a rate hike may be on the table Polymarket currently thinks there is a - 47% chance we get a rate hike in 2026 - 69% chance we get 0 rate cuts in 2026
@financialjuiceBNP Paribas forecasts three Fed rate hikes, with the first in December.
@deitaoneBNP PARIBAS SEES THREE FED RATE HIKES STARTING DECEMBER
@zerohedge*BNP PARIBAS FORECASTS THREE FED RATE HIKES, FIRST IN DECEMBER