Fed Hike Bets Harden After Waller Remarks, Futures Fully Price Quarter-Point by End-2026
U.S. rate-futures traders increased bets on Federal Reserve tightening after remarks from Waller about removing "easing bias" from the FOMC statement, with markets now seeing the policy rate rising as soon as October and fully pricing a quarter-point hike by the end of 2026.
The repricing builds on a hawkish message from minutes of the Fed's April meeting, which showed a majority of officials said some policy firming would likely become appropriate if inflation continued to run persistently above the central bank's 2% target. Many participants also preferred dropping language that implied an easing bias, although several said cuts later this year could still be warranted if inflation pressures eased.
From the sources (25 posts)
@reutersFed minutes show more policymakers open to a rate hike
@wublockchainFOMC Minutes: Most Officials See Longer Path Back to 2% Inflation, Further Tightening Possible if Needed The Federal Reserve’s April FOMC meeting minutes showed officials broadly viewed inflation as still running above the 2% target, with
@axiosMost Fed officials see rate hikes if inflation stays high, minutes show
@coinmarketcapJUST IN: 🏦 The April FOMC minutes show a majority of Fed participants said rate hikes may be necessary if inflation stays above 2%.
@nypostFed minutes from divisive meeting show officials prepping for possible rate hike as inflation fears intensify
@cnbcFed officials see rate hike ahead if inflation stays elevated, minutes show
@macroedgeresOdds of a rate hike before the end of the year are surging as Fed officials remove easing bias from language #MacroEdge
@bloombergtvA majority of Federal Reserve officials warned the central bank would likely need to consider raising interest rates if inflation continued to run persistently above their 2% target. Mike McKee reports https://t.co
@wsjFed officials all but retired the question that had dominated their debates for the past two years—whether to cut interest rates—and began at their meeting last month to more seriously weigh whether to raise them
@ft‘Many’ Fed officials called for central bank to drop easing bias in April
@sullycnbc.@CMEGroup Fed Watch Tool shows a chance of an interest rate HIKE later this year HIKE .. not a cut.
@lizthomasstratFOMC meeting minutes score as the most hawkish since July 2023. A majority saw a rate hike if inflation remained hot, while many preferred removing the easing bias from the statement (three official voters, but the minutes suggest most non-
@deitaoneFED MINUTES SIGNAL HAWKISH SHIFT The April Fed minutes show a growing push among officials to drop any easing bias, with concerns that inflation pressures—driven by tariffs, energy costs, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East—could kee
@kalshiJUST IN: Fed meeting minutes show "majority" of officials believe rate hike may be needed 35% chance it happens this year.
@businessA majority of Federal Reserve officials warned the central bank would likely need to consider raising interest rates if inflation continued to run persistently above their 2% target.
@geiger_capital*FED: MAJORITY SAW RATE HIKE LIKELY WARRANTED IF INFLATION PERSISTS *FED: VAST MAJORITY SAW HIGHER INFLATION RISK, LONGER TO RETURN TO 2% About those rate cuts…
@amitisinvestingFED MINUTES INDICATE A MAJORITY OF OFFICIALS BELIEVE INFLATION IS PERSISTENT AND COULD REQUIRE HIKES Warsh is going to have some work to deal with soon… If it really is just oil, then maybe the war ending helps get rid of the case for a
@zerohedgeSeveral participants highlighted that it would likely be appropriate to lower the target range for the federal funds rate once there are clear indications that disinflation is firmly back on track or if solid signs emerge of greater weaknes
@zerohedgeFOMC Minutes Confirm Deeply-Divided Fed With Clear Hawkish Bias
@financialjuiceFed staff economic outlook projection was slightly stronger than for the March meeting.
@financialjuiceFed Minutes: Some participants were concerned about a scenario in which elevated energy prices and tariffs could result in inflation pressures becoming embedded more broadly.
@financialjuiceFed Minutes: Several participants indicated rate cuts would be warranted later this year in a scenario in which conflict was resolved soon, and inflation pressures dissipated.
@financialjuiceFed Minutes: Participants generally observed middle east conflict could have significant implications for the balance of risks and the appropriate policy path.
@financialjuiceFed Minutes: Almost all participants supported maintaining the Fed funds target range at this meeting.
@firstsquawkFED MINUTES: THE FED STAFF'S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK PROJECTION CAME IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN AT THE MARCH MEETING. SOME PARTICIPANTS VOICED CONCERN OVER A SCENARIO IN WHICH HIGH ENERGY PRICES AND TARIFFS COULD CAUSE INFLATION PRESSURES TO BECOME