Suspicious $800 Million Oil Trade Before Trump’s Iran Statements Draws Federal Probe
Federal investigators are probing suspicious oil trades made shortly before Trump announced “very good and productive” talks with Iran, CBS News reported, broadening scrutiny around markets tied to military events beyond prediction platforms. Separately, a 60 Minutes report cited LSEG data showing more than $800 million was staked on oil prices falling at 6:50 a.m. ET on March 23; 15 minutes later, Trump announced a postponement of strikes against Iranian infrastructure, and oil fell 10%. The report said it had not determined whether the trade used inside information or whether the trader was in the U.S.
The same 60 Minutes report cited analytics firm Bubblemaps as saying nine connected Polymarket accounts made more than $2.4 million with a 98% win rate across more than 80 bets on U.S. military actions, including alleged predictions of the first U.S. strikes on Iran, the removal of Iran’s supreme leader and a ceasefire announcement. The allegations follow a Wall Street Journal report that U.S. market regulators were seeking information from prediction-market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket over wagers tied to political events and military operations, while 60 Minutes said the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is reportedly investigating the oil trades.
From the sources (8 posts)
@firstsquawkU.S. market regulators are seeking information from Kalshi and Polymarket over wagers tied to political events and military operations-WSJ
@wsjmarketsU.S. market regulators are seeking information from Kalshi and Polymarket over wagers tied to political events and military operations
@marketnews_feedU.S. MARKET REGULATORS ARE SEEKING INFORMATION FROM KALSHI AND POLYMARKET OVER WAGERS TIED TO POLITICAL EVENTS AND MILITARY OPERATIONS-WSJ ...
@endgameww3Suspected insider accounts net $2.4 million on Polymarket Iran war bets with 98% win rate, firm finds
@elintnewsRT @60Minutes: A journalist says he received threats after his reporting determined the outcome of a prediction market wager, with $22 mill…
@endgameww3RT @60Minutes: A journalist says he received threats after his reporting determined the outcome of a prediction market wager, with $22 mill…
@tftc21Someone placed an $800 million bet that oil prices would drop, then 15 minutes later the president made an announcement that sent oil down 10%. 60 Minutes is claiming that insider trading is occurring on a massive scale around US military
@ryanrozbiani🇺🇸 Insider Oil Trades on Trump's Iran Posts Federal investigators are probing suspicious oil trades made shortly before Trump announced “very good and productive” talks with Iran, CBS News reported.