EIA Sees Hormuz Oil Market Normalizing by 2027, Warns Longer Closure Adds $20 to Crude
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said global oil output and trade flows disrupted by the Strait of Hormuz crisis would return to pre-conflict levels by late 2026 or early 2027 under a scenario in which the waterway stays closed through late May and traffic resumes gradually in June. The agency said crude prices would be about $20 a barrel higher than its current forecast if the strait remained shut through late June instead of reopening in late May.
In its short-term energy outlook, the EIA estimated 10.5 million barrels a day of crude production was shut in during April across Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Bahrain, with outages peaking at about 10.8 million barrels a day in May. The forecast broadly aligns with earlier warnings from Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Officer Amin Nasser that oil markets would take months to rebalance and could normalize only in 2027 if disruptions persist, even as Goldman Sachs has said the broader economic fallout so far has been moderate.
From the sources (25 posts)
@ajenewsThe world has gone without about 1 billion barrels of oil over the past two months due to the Strait of Hormuz closure, and even if energy flows resume, it will take time for the system to return to normal, Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser tell
@iranintl_enSaudi Aramco reported a rise in first-quarter profit on Sunday that exceeded analysts’ expectations after the Iran war drove up prices for oil and refined fuels, Bloomberg reported. Adjusted net income rose 26% from a year earlier to nearl
@businessSaudi Aramco reported a 26% increase in first-quarter profit as a war-induced rise in oil prices helped counter lower exports
@ajenglishSaudi Aramco reported a net profit of $32.5bn in the first three months of 2025, marking a sharp 25.5 percent increase from the $25.4bn recorded in the same period last year. 🔴 LIVE updates:
@ajenglishRT @AJENews: The world has gone without about 1 billion barrels of oil over the past two months due to the Strait of Hormuz closure, and ev…
@firstsquawkAramco raises basic dividend distributions by 3.5% to 82.1 billion riyals in the first quarter
@ajenewsBREAKING: Saudi Aramco records over $32bn in first quarter profits 🔴 LIVE updates:
@staunovoSaudi Aramco reported first-quarter profit that surpassed analysts’ expectations following a war-induced rise in prices of oil and refined fuels. Adjusted net income rose 26% to almost 126 billion riyals ($33.6 billion) in the quarter comp
@firstsquawkSaudi Aramco's profits rise by 25% year-on-year in the first quarter
@firstsquawkSaudi Aramco's profits reached 120.1 billion riyals in the first quarter of the current year
@firstsquawkAramco CEO: East-West Pipeline has proven to be a vital artery to ensure the continuity of oil supplies
@ftSaudi Aramco reports higher profits despite Iran war
@reutersSaudi Aramco's Q1 profit rises 25% on higher sales, key pipeline full
@staunovoReopening routes is not the same as normalizing a market that has been deprived of about one billion barrels of oil - CEO Aramco #oott
@firstsquawkSaudi Aramco reports revenue of $115 billion in first quarter of 2026.
@staunovoThe past two months have.been a stark reminder that oil and gas are essential to energy security Aramco’s operational flexibility, enabled through the East West pipeline, has proven to be a critical lifeline, helping mitigate some ripple ef
@hfi_researchRT @staunovo: Reopening routes is not the same as normalizing a market that has been deprived of about one billion barrels of oil - CEO Ara…
@joumannatvNEW: Saudi Aramco reported a * 26%* jump in first-quarter profit following a war-induced rise in prices of oil and refined fuels, and as it redirected exports via a pipeline bypassing the Strait of Hormuz @A_DiPaola17
@thetranscript_Saudi Aramco CEO: "Our East-West Pipeline, which reached its maximum capacity of 7.0 million barrels of oil per day, has proven itself to be a critical supply artery, helping to mitigate the impact of a global energy shock..." Q1 26 result
@joumannatvNOTABLE from Aramco commentary today. People massively underestimating how long it will take for things to return back to normal even if Hormuz opens today 👇 *OIL REBALANCING TO TAKE MONTHS EVEN IF HORMUZ OPENS NOW: ARAMCO *OIL MARKET TO
@bulltheoryioBREAKING: Saudi Aramco just posted a 25% jump in profit, earning $38.4 billion in a single quarter because of the war. That is $420 million in profit every single day. Total revenue climbed to $115.49 billion, up 11.4% from the previous q
@reutersAramco CEO warns 1 billion barrels lost will slow oil market recovery
@alaliqasemAramco just confirmed what the data already showed. Even if Hormuz opens tomorrow — rebalancing takes months. And if the closure extends a few more weeks? Normalization pushed to 2027. This means: ▸ June → Operational Stress Level (7.6B bar
@businessThe wait stretched on for Iran’s response to a US proposal to end 10 weeks of war, as the world’s largest oil company warned it would take months for the market to return to normal even if the Strait of Hormuz reopened immediately. https://
@amena__bakrAramco just confirmed that the east west pipeline is running at full capacity of 7 million bpd #OOTT #Aramco