Oil Traders Stress-Test for $200 Crude as Iran Shock Lingers
Executives at some of the world’s largest oil traders warned at the FT Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne that the fallout from the Iran conflict could last for months even after any deal to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and some said flows through the waterway may never fully return to normal. They said the oil market is not fully reflecting the scale of the supply disruption and that, if the conflict continues, prices may need to rise enough to push the global economy toward recession.
Gunvor Chief Executive Jeff Webster said traders are stress-testing their books for a scenario in which crude climbs to $200 to $300 a barrel, drawing on lessons from the 2022-2023 gas price spikes during the Ukraine crisis. A Goldman Delta One note said the market remains split between those who see each additional week of curtailment, especially in refined products, as increasingly hard to reverse and those who expect the shock to prove temporary once a deal brings sanctions relief and incremental barrels back, a view equity markets are largely backing.
From the sources (6 posts)
@staunovoThe impact of the Iran war will continue for months even after any deal to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s largest oil traders have warned. Some said flows through the waterway may never return to normal. Speakin
@staunovoOil market is underpricing the scale of Iran supply disruption - CFO Gunvor #oott
@staunovoOil traders are stress-testing their books against a scenario in which crude prices surge to $200 to $300 a barrel because of the Iran crisis, having learned to do so during the sharp gas price spikes during the Ukraine crisis in 2022 to 20
@oilheadlinenewsOil traders are stress-testing their books against a scenario in which crude prices surge to $200 to $300 a barrel because of the Iran crisis, having learned to do so during the sharp gas price spikes during the Ukraine crisis in 2022 to 20
@oilheadlinenewsThe oil market is underpricing the scale of Iran supply disruption - CFO Gunvor @staunovo
@oilheadlinenewsGoldman Delta One: "There is still a real debate inside the oil complex. One camp argues the curtailment is so severe, especially in refined products, that each additional week becomes disproportionately more disruptive…that you cannot simp