U.S. 30-Year Mortgage Rate Jumps to 6.58% As Treasury Selloff Lifts Fed Hike Odds to 36%
The average U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.58% for the week ending July 23, the highest level since Aug. 21, 2025, according to Freddie Mac. The rate increase tracked a broad Treasury selloff that pushed the 10-year note yield above 4.70% for the first time since January 2025, raising borrowing costs across the housing and corporate sectors.
The bond selloff accelerated as crude oil prices rose on renewed Middle East hostilities, stoking concerns that inflation pressures could keep rate cuts out of reach. Federal Reserve rate hike probabilities jumped to 36% from 12% over the past week, according to CME Group FedWatch data, as traders shifted pricing away from a dovish policy path.
From the sources (25 posts)
@firstsquawkUS YIELDS EXTEND CLIMB WITH OIL, 30-YEAR HIGHEST SINCE MAY 21
@zerohedge*US 10-YEAR, 30-YEAR YIELDS REACH HIGHEST LEVELS IN TWO MONTHS
@businessThe US Treasury market fell, pushing 10- and 30-year yields to the highest levels in about two months, as a surge in crude oil prices stoked concern that inflationary pressures will prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. https:
@kobeissiletterThere it is: The 10Y Note Yield has officially erased all of its losses since the "Memorandum of Understanding" was signed. This puts the 10Y Note Yield up to 4.63%, near its highest level since January 2025. 7% mortgage rates in the US
@lisaabramowicz1Real yields on U.S. 10-year Treasuries have reached the highest since 2023.
@steve_hankeThe 2-year US Treasury yield has risen to 4.2%. That's well above the Fed's fed funds target range of 3.5-3.75%. The bond vigilantes have come out of hibernation. THE INFLATION GENIE IS OUT OF THE BOTTLE.
@globalmktobserv🚨US TREASURY YIELDS ARE SURGING ACROSS THE CURVE: The US 30-year Treasury yield is up to 5.134%, near the highest since 2007. The 10-year yield hit its highest since late May, at 4.634%, near the highest since January 2025. This comes as
@macroedgeresReal yields on U.S. 10-year Treasuries reach highest since 2023 #MacroEdge
@biancoresearchThere's an old adage that goes, "When the Fed starts panicking, I can stop panicking." If the Fed takes inflation seriously, bond investors can stay calm. If the Fed wants to continually rationalize that inflation is not a problem, bond in
@kevrgordonNew 1.5-year high for the 2y Treasury yield today
@wsjRenewed hostilities in the Middle East are driving a prolonged selloff in U.S. government bonds, sending yields close to their highest levels of the year and lifting borrowing costs for businesses and consumers.
@lizannsondersMarket pricing in at least one rate hike by December
@zerohedgeTREASURY 10-YEAR YIELD REACHES YEAR'S HIGH AT 4.69%
@polymarketmoneyJUST IN: 10-year treasury yield officially crosses 4.7%.
@macroedgeres10 year yield tops 4.7% #MacroEdge
@kobeissiletterBREAKING: The US 10Y Note Yield officially surges above 4.70% for the first time since January 2025. This puts yields above the "Liberation Day" high in April 2025, set to drive interest rates to new 52-week highs. The bond market is flas
@firstsquawkUS 10Y Note Yield officially surges above 4.70% for the first time since January 2025. This puts yields above the "Liberation Day" high in April 2025, set to drive interest rates to new 52-week highs.
@polymarketmoneyJUST IN: Odds of a 2026 rate hike surge to a record-high 71%.
@macroedgeres72% chance of a rate hike before the end of the year, new cycle high #MacroEdge
@firstsquawkU.S. 30-YEAR FIXED RATE MORTGAGE AVERAGE REACHED 6.58% IN WEEK OF JULY 23, THE HIGHEST SINCE AUGUST 21, 2025, UP FROM 6.55% THE WEEK BEFORE - FREDDIE MAC.
@financialjuiceUS 30-year fixed rate mortgage averages 6.58 pct in the week of July 23rd, highest since the week of August 21st, 2025, vs 6.55% prior week - Freddie Mac.
@businessUS Treasury yields rose to their highest levels of the year as the threat of escalation in the Iran war sent oil prices higher
@zerohedge30-YEAR FIXED RATE MORTGAGE AVG HITS 6.58% IN WEEK OF JULY 23, HIGHEST SINCE AUGUST 21, 2025: FREDDIE MAC
@wallstengineU.S. 🇺🇸 mortgage rates rose for a third straight week, with the average 30-year fixed rate climbing to 6.58%, near its highest level in a year.
@cnbcOdds of Federal Reserve rate hike surge as oil prices rip higher