Morgan Stanley slashes Q3 Brent forecast to $75 as shipping returns through Strait of Hormuz
Morgan Stanley lowered its third-quarter forecast for Brent crude by $15 a barrel to $75, citing a faster-than-anticipated recovery in shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The Wall Street bank adjusted its outlook as tankers resumed transiting the critical Middle East oil chokepoint following a sharp decline in daily flows to around 12 vessels.
The forecast downgrade reflects mounting concerns over a potential oil market surplus, as Morgan Stanley points to resilient US production and weaker demand from China. While maritime transits through the strait are rebounding and vessels have begun utilizing alternative routes via Oman, overall oil loadings in the broader Middle East region remain at roughly half of pre-conflict levels.
From the sources (14 posts)
@hfi_researchKuwait Prosperity is the first VLCC to have made it through the Oman route following the US strike.
@hfi_researchNavi8 Macallister is using the Oman route.
@polymarketJUST IN: Shipping giant NYK’s CEO warns mines have left safe routes through the Strait of Hormuz “extremely limited”
@rory_johnstonOnly 12 Hormuz transits (both directions) have been confirmed for yesterday, amidst the latest flare-up, down from the crisis high of ~60 transits recorded on Wednesday. Those will likely drift a bit higher as dark transits are discovered,
@rory_johnstonHormuz exit transits without fresh loadings to sustain them are a temporary sugar high Middle East* oil loadings are up notably through June, largely on UAE recovery, but are still only at roughly half pre-war levels *Inc reroutes: Gulf +
@staunovoRT @Rory_Johnston: Only 12 Hormuz transits (both directions) have been confirmed for yesterday, amidst the latest flare-up, down from the c…
@staunovoRT @SStapczynski: An Adnoc LNG tanker appears to be heading for Hormuz crossing 🇦🇪🚢 LNG traffic through Hormuz has largely paused since s…
@staunovoRT @Rory_Johnston: Hormuz exit transits without fresh loadings to sustain them are a temporary sugar high Middle East* oil loadings are up…
@staunovoWeekend escalation shows how far Iran is willing to go to control Hormuz
@rory_johnstonTurn-backs are an interesting indicator (would love a timeseries) Someone believed enough that they could get through Hormuz that they steamed to the Strait, but then Iran had enough effective authority that day (that said ship respected/f
@staunovoRT @MarineTraffic: Strait of Hormuz traffic continues amid security threats The Strait of Hormuz remained open over the weekend, with vess…
@staunovoRT @SStapczynski: Nevermind The Adnoc LNG tanker has paused its journey (and might be turning back)
@firstsquawkMORGAN STANLEY SLASHES Q3 DATED BRENT FORECAST BY $15 TO $75/BBL AS SUPPLY RETURNS THROUGH HORMUZ
@businessMorgan Stanley cuts its oil price forecasts as flows through the Strait of Hormuz return faster than expected, while strong US supply and weak Chinese demand increase the risk of a surplus