Gulf Exporters Move 96 Million Barrels of Non-Iranian Crude Through Hormuz and Oman Routes Since May
Gulf exporters are increasingly using dark transits, small shuttle tankers and ship-to-ship transfers to keep non-Iranian crude moving around the Strait of Hormuz. Kpler has tracked roughly 96 million barrels of confirmed non-Iranian crude exports since early May through either direct Hormuz transits or Gulf of Oman export networks, while Energy Aspects estimates Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates are currently shipping about 3 million barrels a day through the strait.
The flows show significant Gulf supply is still reaching market despite disruptions that traders have said may keep traffic from returning to normal before year-end. The workaround involves smaller tankers running at night along the Omani coast and transferring cargoes to larger vessels in the Gulf of Oman; people with knowledge of the transits said about 15 ships a day are using the route under US air cover, though the passage can narrow to about 800 meters and tanker executives have warned of accident risk.
From the sources (14 posts)
@cnbcStrait of Hormuz traffic won't return to normal until end of the year, traders say
@firstsquawkOIL PRICES REMAINED FIRM AFTER ISRAEL AND IRAN PAUSED HOSTILITIES, BUT CONCERNS PERSIST AS DISRUPTIONS IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ CONTINUE TO RESTRICT THE FLOW OF CRUDE OIL, FUELS, AND NATURAL GAS, SUPPORTING ELEVATED PRICES.
@firstsquawkMARKETS REMAIN FOCUSED ON GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS, WITH ANALYSTS WARNING THAT EVEN IF A BROADER PEACE DEAL IS REACHED, RESTORING NORMAL ENERGY EXPORTS COULD TAKE MONTHS DUE TO MINE CLEARANCE, INFRASTRUCTURE REPAIRS, AND THE RESTART OF DAM
@rusoilgasexpert➡️ Finally, satellite evidence of significant ship-to-ship transfers occurring just off the coast of Oman. ➡️ This is precisely the thing we were expecting to happen a couple of months ago👇, as those with the risk appetite for blockade-run
@jackprandelliOPEC+ just agreed its 4th consecutive monthly quota hike. Most members still can't pump up to their current targets. UAE: 4.0 mb/d. The largest producer ever to leave OPEC bigger than Qatar's exit (1.8 mb/d), bigger than Angola (1.2 mb
@jackprandelli🇯🇵Japan's crude inventories just hit a record low. From 2017 to 2025: 345-400 million barrels. Early 2026: the line falls off the chart. 355 mb → 275 mb📉 This is what absorbing a Hormuz shock looks like. Japan imports nearly 100% of i
@javierblasSignificant amount of Middle Eastern oil is leaving the Persian Gulf by tanker via the Strait of Hormuz (in addition of the bypass pipelines). The telltale is the decline over the last few weeks of onshore crude inventories. Plus the surge
@jackprandelliLook at where India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan sit on this map. They're all pinned to one corner: Qatar. Now look at Europe that big blue bubble parked on the US corner. This chart shows who really supplies the world's largest LNG buyers
@javierblasKuwait is offering to sell its crude to refiners in Asia for the first time since the Iran war started. Another key sign that more Middle Eastern crude is flowing “dark” via the Strait of Hormuz by tanker (on top of what’s moved via bypass
@jackprandelliReuters today: "Asia LNG demand recovers from Iran shock as China buys." Sounds like the allclear, right? Look closer. Yes, China is back in the market. Japan's June imports hit a 3-month high. Asia's arrivals are recovering. But here's
@anasalhajji💠While the FT gives a good summary, it oversimplifies the debate as just “two sides” when there are more views in play. It also misses the key distinction between crude and refined products — and ignores how several countries have banned or
@alikhodedovHORMUZ DARK TRANSITS This is so far the best article on the subject that I have seen. Great job, FT team. Basically they confirm what @tleilax___ was writing about few days ago: smaller older tankers belonging to NOCs shuttle through th
@staunovoRT @Amena__Bakr: Since early May, @Kpler tracked roughly 96 million barrels of confirmed non-Iranian crude exports through either: direct S…
@alikhodedovI think the idea there is that small ships belonging to Kuwait/UAE/Iraq NOCs shuttle through the Strait back and forth at night close to Oman coast with lights off. Since they go back and forth (FT estimates the avg number as 15 in total -