Goldman Warns Oil Inventories May Hit Record Lows as Hormuz Flows Stay Curbed
Goldman Sachs said global visible oil inventories are likely to reach all-time lows even if Strait of Hormuz flows begin recovering by late April. Global visible inventories have fallen by 255 million barrels since Feb. 27 to 7.864 billion barrels, while total estimated draws, including non-OECD refined products storage, accelerated to 10.9 million barrels a day in April, the largest monthly draw on record since 2017. Cumulative draws since the start of the war were estimated at 474 million barrels, with Hormuz flows holding near 2.0 million barrels a day, or about 10% of normal.
Separate estimates put a pre-existing global oil shortfall of about 14 million barrels a day at 15 million to 16 million after Iranian exports collapsed to near zero following a US blockade. The International Energy Agency's count, cited by traders, shows more than 500 million barrels of crude and product supply have been lost so far, and traders said that could reach 1 billion barrels even with a quick reopening of Hormuz. With floating storage already drawn down and strategic petroleum reserve releases taking time to reach the market, onshore inventories are starting to fall, pointing to higher prompt prices and possible demand destruction if stocks approach minimum operating levels.
From the sources (6 posts)
@globalmktobserv🚨The underlying energy market fundamentals have not improved: The pre-existing oil shortfall of ~14 million barrels per day has likely widened to 15-16 million barrels per day after Iranian exports collapsed to near zero following the US b
@rory_johnstonRT @barnettenergy: Can the global market survive a 10 million barrel-per-day supply hole? Is $200 oil coming? Will Europe run out of jet…
@globalmktobserv⚠️Global oil inventories are heading toward RECORD LOWS: Global visible oil inventories have fallen -255 million barrels since the start of the conflict on February 27, to 7,864 million barrels. Total estimated oil draws, including non-OE
@oilheadlinenewsArctic: “Some of the top trading firms have confirmed the IEA's count that more than 500 mbls of crude and product supply have been lost to date, with the count likely to reach 1bn barrels even if there was a quick solution to reopen Hormuz
@globalmktobserv🚨The underlying energy market fundamentals have not improved: The pre-existing oil shortfall of ~14 million barrels per day has likely widened to 15-16 million barrels per day after Iranian exports collapsed to near zero following the US b
@staunovoRT @ericnuttall: With safety buffers having now been exhausted, onshore inventories are just beginning to plunge. It is inevitable that inv…